本書全面地講述了時頻域方法理論。在第1版的基礎上增加了不少新的內容,大量的實例結合統(tǒng)計軟件的應用,使本書的實用性更強。延續(xù)了第1版的風格,包括分類時間序列分析、譜包絡、多元譜方法、長記憶序列、非線性模型、縱向數(shù)據(jù)分析、重抽樣技巧、Garch模型、隨機波動性模型、小波和MonteCarloMarkov鏈積分方法最近發(fā)展比較迅速的話題。
The fourth edition follows the general layout of the third edition but includes some modernization of topics as well as the coverage of additional topics.The preface to the third edition-which follows-still applies,so we concentrate on the differences between the two editions here.As in the third edition,R code for each example is given in the text,even if the code is excruciatingly long.Most of the examples with seemingly endless coding are in the latter chapters.The R package for the text,astsa,is still supported and details may be found in Appendix R.The global temperature deviation series have been updated to 2015 and are included in the newest version of the package;the corresponding examples and problems have been updated accordingly.Chapter 1 of this edition is similar to the previous edition,but we have included the definition of trend stationarity and the concept of prewhitening when using cross correlation.The New York Stock Exchange data set,wluch focused on an old financial crisis,was replaced with a more current.series of the Dow Jones Industrial Average,which focuses on a newer financial crisis.In Chap.2,we rewrote some of the regression review,changing the smoothing examples from the mortality data example to the Southern Oscillation Index and finding El Nino.We also expanded on the lagged regression example and carried it on to Chap.3.
In Chap.3,we removed normality from definition of ARMA models;while the assumption is not necessary for the definition,it is essential for inference and pre diction.We added a section on regression with ARMA errors and the corresponding problems;this section was previously in Chap.5.Some of the examples have been modified and we added some examples in the seasonal ARMA section.Finally,we included a discussion of lagged regression with autocorrelated errors.
In Chap.4,we improved and added some examples.The idea of modulated series is discussed using the classic star magnitude data set.We moved some of the filtering section forward for easier access to information when needed.We removed the reliance on spec.pgram (from the stats package) to mvspec (from the astsa package) so we can avoid having to spend pages explaining the quirks of spec .pgram,which tended to take over the narrative.The section on wavelets was removed because there are so many accessible texts available.The spectral representation theorems are discussed in a little more detail using examples based on simple harmonic processes.
The general layout of Chap.5 and of Chap.7 is the same,although we have revised some of the examples.As previously mentioned,we moved regression with ARMA errors to Chap.3.
Chapter 6 sees the biggest change in this edition.We have added a section on smoothing splines,and a section on hidden Markov models and switching autoregressions.The Bayesian section is completely rewritten and is on linear Gaussian state space models only.The nonlinear material in the previous edition is removedbecause it was old,and the newer material is in Douc,Moulines,and Stoffer.Many of the examples have been rewritten to make the chapter more accessible.
The appendices are similar,with some minor changes to Appendix A and Appendix B.We added material to Appendix C,including a discussion of Riemann Stieltjes and stochastic integration,a proof of the fact that the spectra of autoregressive processes are dense in the space of spectral densities,and a proof of the fact that spec tra are approximately the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of a stationary process.We tweaked,rewrote,improved,or revised some of the exercises,but the overall ordering and coverage is roughly the same.And,of course,we moved regression with ARMA errors problems to Chap,3 and removed the Chap,4 wavelet problems.The exercises for Chap.6 have been updated accordingly to reflect the new and improved version of the chapter.
羅伯特·沙姆韋(Robert H. Shumway)是美國加州大學戴維斯分校的統(tǒng)計學榮休教授。他是美國統(tǒng)計學會(American Statistical Association)和國際統(tǒng)計學會(International Statistical Institute)的杰出會士。他對時間序列應用的研究曾獲得過1986年美國統(tǒng)計學會杰出統(tǒng)計應用獎和1992年傳染病中心統(tǒng)計獎。他出版過多部有影響力的統(tǒng)計學教材,并擔任Forecasting和Journal of the American Statistical Association等期刊的編委。
戴維·斯托弗(David S. Stoffer)是美國匹茲堡大學統(tǒng)計學榮休教授。他是美國統(tǒng)計學會的杰出會士,并獲得過1989年美國統(tǒng)計學會杰出統(tǒng)計應用獎。他曾擔任美國國家科學基金會數(shù)學科學部的項目主任,還是Forecasting、Journal of the American Statistical Association、Annals of Statistical Mathematics、Journal of Time Series Analysis、Journal of Business & Economic Statistics等期刊的編委。